Routing 2010

Routing Assessments for the 2010 Delivery of Cirrus

These are actual routing calculations done by Cirrugator for the delivery from Hawaii to San Francisco. Read this by beginning at the green dot on the lower left, and follow the red diamonds to the yellow dot in the upper right. The red arrows represent the wind to be expected along the course. The black lines are the isochrones, thick lines for full day, thin lines for 6h intervalles. Count the number of thick black lines which the diamond track crosses, and you have the number of days it takes.

This is NOT (!!) a forecast for the actual delivery, but rather should be understood like this:

If Cirrus departed on the date given as "GRIB Ref.Date (UTC)" this is what the route would look like and the "Time to go" information tells you how long this route would take. Keep in mind that during delivery the engine might be used to speed up when the wind slows down. In particular, when the diamonds are overlapping it is engine time, and the "Time to go" will shorten accordingly!

For more details see the explanations see the DEMO site of Cirrugator

Folks,
if you need to know more details for any route, then please go to the Cirrugator Program site and route to your heart's delight. All resources are available, nothing is hidden. The Help menu will give you quick help, the Demo site provides even more guidance and explanation. And an additional step-by-step cookbook is here.
If you need help beyond what is already available, then contact me either via the Cirrus blog as a comment to one of my posts, or by using the contact function on the Cirrugator site.

P.S. if you are looking for routing for a boat different from Cirrus, keep in mind that this routing is using the polars of Cirrus! Your mileage may vary!!!!

Cirrus has departed, and these routing updates stop now. However, you will now find up-to-date info on the Demo site - the ETAs are now real forecasts - and you can go to the Cirrugator Program site, which is now preset for Cirrus's delivery.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-06-01 routing:
[Update at evening in Germany] This is the day! The routing is now done for a departure at 1000 HST, thus ETA is now the real estimate. The first day is close hauled, so going a little bit more northerly will probably come natural ;-). The remainder looks quite a bit nicer than this morning, just another indication of the huge variations in wind pattern over the distance and over time. Take a look at the grib files to see. Still looks like 15 days.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-31 routing:
Two small hickups in the 1st quarter calling for the engine, but otherwise smooth sailing. Winds in the tens. Go slow, please, or you'll ruin my 15d9h forecast!

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-30 routing:
It is taking a turn for the better. Be prepared for some good wind in the high 20s, but also some motoring in low wind about in the middle. Initially a more northerly route may be justified, like shown in the blue or even red waypoint route. But quite manageable. Could be 14d!

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-29 routing:
This is getting really complicated. Time to go of 12.64d is nice, but in the 3rd quarter of the trip you go close hauled for a week. In the 2nd quarter the wind is going up into the upper 20kn, fortunately at a good wind angle. I then tried to outsmart Cirrugator with my red and blue waypoint route in order to go a little bit longer, but improve the 3rd quarter situation. Didn't work. (But it did get me closer to 15d 9h ;-]). It probably is still better to head towards my 1st waypoint (28N/156W) for a little bit better wind angle and see from there. The daily changes in the wind pattern are still quite significant.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-28 routing:
Hmmm, this is a difficult one. When you look at the individual grib files, so you very signifcant variation from day to day. And under such variation approaching SF from the south is a hard decision. Furthermore, last five days are pretty close hauled. I guess this will have changed by tomorrow, otherwise we need to think hard what to do. Probably going further north in the beginning. Still, at the end it will be under 16 days.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-27 routing:
Ugh. What a change to yesterday, the weather is anything but stable. It is a real mess for the last 5 days. Looks like a lot of motoring, which at least brings the time down to under 16 days.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-26 routing:
Huh? A downwind run all the way to San Francisco! And you may get through the Golden Gate bridge without doing a single jibe - although Cirrugator is showing 3, but they may well turn out to be not necessary - which would be a curiosity in itself.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-25 routing:
Holy smoke - do you really think you deserve this? 12.45days, an average boat speed of 7.56kn without even using the engine, wind speed under 20kn, wonderful windangle. And even the "go north - turn right" route is only 2 days longer. I keep fingers crossed.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-23 routing:
A bit messy at the end. But use your engine, and you'd be there in under 16d. I also added the "go north - turn right" route as a waypoint route. It is less efficient, but not completely out of place. At longitude 130W routes the waypoint route has taken 15 days, while the Cirrguator route only 11.3 days. For both routes the final run under engine should be less than 3 days. Major problem for sailing is the lack of wind, so motoring should be quite alright.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-22 routing:
see yeasterday. Any more wishes?

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-21 routing:
Pretty much the classical "go north - turn right" route. Except for the detour not much to complain about. Wind 10-15kn, wind angle at a comfortable 100deg, boat speed 7 -8 kn -- a pleasant white sails trip all the way to the city!

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-20 routing:
see yesterday

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-19 routing:
Not much difference from yesterday. Go first more due north for more comfort, and latitude 38 just zip along. Comfy winds in the 10s. Under 16 days.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-18 routing:
Well, how are we doing about another "wondrous routing fantasy" for 12 days delivery?
First, let's shudder in despair by looking at today's weather map, the Pacific Surface Analysis. Can you figure out what to do with 3 Lows, 1 High, 2 fronts, and one "developing gale" in your way? Go and take a look at the 48h forecast, if you think this helps. But Cirrugator has an idea; it takes 15 days.
However: the first week is close hauled sailing, which is diminishing the fun of a delivery (would be equally awful in a race, though).So maybe the old rule applies: go due north until you are of the latitude of San Francisco, and then turn due east. Motor when beneficial. I'd say 16 days, no more than 17!

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-17 routing:
A slight improvement. But take a look at the individual GRIB files; there is quite some variability!

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-16 routing:
Same comment as yeasterday: Oh dear, I hope this goes away before we have to start thinking hard about it :-)

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-15 routing:
Oh dear, I hope this goes away before we have to start thinking hard about it :-)

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-14 routing:
Start out with some nice sailing, then motor for 2-3 days, and then ride in comfort at up to 8 knots. At the end it might still be under 2 weeks.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-13 routing:
Too much motoring and then too much close haul. I guess going due north first for a few days might help for a better route.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-12 routing:
Another record setter for your wish list with smooth sailing almost the whole trip.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-11 routing:
Somewhat rough for the first two days, then use the engine for two days, and then enjoy 8kn boat speed with comfy app wind angles of 100-120deg for the remainder of the trip. Spare the spinnackers! Will come out under 14days!

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-10 routing:
A bit closy-hauly in the middle, but add 1/2 day and you'l be fine.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-09 routing:
Another chance for a delivery record without using the engine.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-08 routing:
Looks like a delivery record, and no need to use the engine! For a bit more comfort go yellow.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-07 routing:
Gosh, what a beauty! Pray for something like this.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-06 routing:
I am showing the green analysis only, the red is too cumbersome to sail. And green takes 15 days only.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-05 routing:
Not a whole lot to complain about today. A bit soft in the middle - but you want to go further north anyway to avoid sailing into the wind for the second half of the trip. I'd say with a bit of engine it'll be 14 days!

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-04 routing:
Pretty much the same thing as yesterday. Looks ugly but is manageable.

UPDATE TO Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-03 routing:
I couldn't help but mulling a bit over today's problem, and it turned out to be easy. I let Cirrugator calculate multiple routes, and the 7th, the purple one, is interesting. While it is listed at 30.99days, it is not that bad. As you see it takes a long detour, and then doesn't find its way back. But in delivery, you can use the engine. So count the isochrones, and you'll find 13 days up to the disappearing purple dot at lat/lon 43N/129W. From there, under motor, it will be 2 days, 3 at the most, for a total of under 16days! And the wind? 10-20kn, at apparent angle of 100+ deg. What else do you want, this is racing with no stress!

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-03 routing:
Now it is getting interesting! Take a look at the individual grib files, and you will understand - major changes every day. Boat speed still good, wind ok but again raising to 30+kn for the final days. But, but, but: can you imagine going 2776 miles close hauled? A weeny bit less close at the end, but then the wind is 30kn. I sure hope this changes significantly before anyone leaves! What to do in such circumstances? Difficult to say. I would first try the waypoint option of the router, and experiment with stepwise routing, always keeping in mind that you can use the engine during delivery.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-02 routing:
( A little late but I spend the last day upgrading my computers to the new Ubuntu Linux 10.04. Highly recommended!)
Well, it looks a bit ugly in the middle, but it is basically the same as yesterday. Nothing that a bit of motoring wouldn't be able to fix. Notice the increase in wind speed from half way to the end - still going up to 30+kn. Notice also how this coincides with moving away from the center of the High, as visible from the thin red arrows. But it is not quite as trivial as 'more-wind-away-from-the-center-of-the-High' - keep in mind that these arrows are shifted both in time and location by the Moving Grib calculation of Cirrugator. Read explanation on the router page.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-05-01 routing:
It is getting more interesting. We have a big High sitting at a great position. To underline this I have added today's weather charts. This would be a perfect summer High, if it wasn't for that ugly front coming from north west, which is pushing the High east and south. You can see this on the 48h forecast weather chart.

The route is beautiful for 2/3rd of the race. Initially 8+kn of speed at beam reach (nice), with the wind slowly moving down from 20kn to 5kn. Some motoring here.

But then wind is going up to off-scale in the graph, beyond 30kn (31.4kn acc. to Cirrugator)! AND you are sailing almost into the wind! Such a situation would take some good planning beforehand.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-04-30 routing:
Deja vu again. But it looks easier to go further north, and more motoring in the middle and the end is needed.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-04-29 routing:
Not much of a change over yesterday. But look at the details in the grib files or weathercharts and you'll notice a Low coming to HI from the West.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-04-28 routing:
Not much of a change. Would be perfect if you liked going into the wind real fast with days on end. Otherwise, take a detour and go further north. But what if the race were to start today from SF? Now this is something to wish for: 11 days and 16 hours - this is 7 hours less than the record year 1998! Almost 8 kn average speed, all under spinnacker. (Sigh) (see 3rd and 4th picture)

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-04-27 routing:
Would be perfect if it weren't for the small windangles. What's the cure : taking a bit wider curvature and thereby going a bit further north?

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-04-26 routing:
Not too bad; wind speed good, boat speed good. I would want to celebrate the half-way party a little bit further north; the second half is a bit too close hauled for delivery. Motoring beginning at day 8 for two days brings you into a good position to be on a beam reach until you slide through the Golden Gate bridge . Might give you even back some time you spend on motoring.

Ulli's interpretation of the 2010-04-25 routing:
It is not quite as bad as you may think. Take a look at the graph below the next, the matching Routing Analysis: Most of the time you are sailing at a good 7kn with windspeeds between 10 and 15kn. However, you are basically close hauled, which is inconvenient for this long distance, but on the other hand you are going white sails, probably with the Autohelm on. The remedy might be to head further north. Once you reach longitude 130W - on day 12 in this graph - the wind dies down. So start the engine, and motor for the next 4 days. Total time ist still 16 days; when you go further north initially maybe 17 days, but no more than 18 days.