2013-07-06: Things might never look better!

Based on GRIB data from 2013-07-06 0000, for a departure on Monday, July 7, 0900HST

A slight southerly route, close to what probably is the longterm average for the race seems to be best. The wind is steady throughout the race at 13-15kn, and perfect for a long downwind race. Even the departure from LA has much improved, problems will be over in under 1/2 day.

This route has been prerouted for a start on monday, July 7, 0900 HST. This start is close enough to trust the grib files a little ahead. Smooth sailing all along. Enjoy the race!

Routing for a Cal40
for departure on Monday, July 7, 0900HST

Passage Overview - click for larger view

NOTE: The thin white line is the Rhumb-line, the thin yellow line is the Great Circle, both drawn from Start to Finish

 
 

Route Analysis - click for larger view

 
 

2013-07-04: A pronounced northly route

Based on GRIB data from 2013-07-04 1800, for a departure the same day

A pronounced northerly route is showing with today's GRIBs. The first 5 best routes are on the Great Circle or even above it.

Again smooth sailing, but only from day 2 onwards, once you made it away from LA.

Routing for a Cal40
for departure today

Passage Overview - click for larger view

NOTE: The thin white line is the Rhumb-line, the thin yellow line is the Great Circle, both drawn from Start to Finish

 
 

Route Analysis - click for larger view

 
 

2013-07-01: Back to Normal

Based on GRIB data from 2013-06-30 1800, for a departure the same day

The wind is back to normal, with a southerly route being the more preferable, and the first 2-3 days suffering from low wind. In fact, the suggested route is almost identical with the route taken by Cirrus (a Standfast 40, approx. same class as Cal40), which had gained them 1st place in their division in Transpac 2007.

Smooth sailing, but only once you made it away from LA.

Routing for a Cal40
for departure today

Passage Overview - click for larger view

NOTE: The thin white line is the Rhumb-line, the thin yellow line is the Great Circle, both drawn from Start to Finish

 
 

Route Analysis - click for larger view

 
 

2013-06-30: Winds are becoming less favorable

Based on GRIB data from 2013-06-30 0000, for a departure the same day

The departure from LA becomes even more difficult (low winds). Furthermore, the winds along the great circle are less favorable than along a more northerly or more southerly route. In fact, Cirrugator's two best routes (red + blue) are way in the north, while only the third best (brown) is in the south. However, considering the wide detour for both northerly routes, and the history of southerly routes being more often the better choice, I'd pick the brown route under these conditions, hoping the weather will change in my favor. The analysis plot R2 is valid for the brown route.

NOTE: the thin white line on the Overview plot is the Rhumb-line, the thin yellow line is the Great Circle, both drawn from Start to Finish

Routing for a Cal40
for departure today

Passage Overview - click for larger view

 
 

Route Analysis - click for larger view

2013-06-28: First Routing

Based on GRIB data from 2013-06-28, for a departure the same day

If you had started today, you would have found it difficult to get away from LA - not an unusual situation - but then would be in good NW wind, and for the remainder of the trip wiggle around the rhumb line LA-HI in moderate winds from 10-16kn (true). Boat speed ok at 7+kn. Overall a smooth ride.

NOTE: the thin white line on the Overview plot is the Rhumb-line, the thin yellow line is the Great Circle, both drawn from Start to Finish

Routing for a Cal40
for departure today

Passage Overview - click for larger view

 
 

Route Analysis - click for larger view